Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-10-26 0.259246 0.292495 0.328525 0.370493 0.418068 0.470364 0.532259
2025-11-02 0.199130 0.240889 0.289490 0.350323 0.424571 0.512421 0.624523
2025-11-09 0.154791 0.199181 0.254225 0.327696 0.423517 0.544686 0.710241
2025-11-16 0.126339 0.172036 0.232098 0.317170 0.435162 0.593905 0.825152
2025-11-23 0.104338 0.149656 0.212497 0.306529 0.444618 0.641452 0.945955
2025-11-30 0.091461 0.137731 0.205204 0.311533 0.476367 0.724599 1.131329
2025-12-07 0.076834 0.120944 0.188281 0.299547 0.480826 0.768017 1.264315
2025-12-14 0.066363 0.108879 0.176634 0.293696 0.493589 0.825853 1.429903
2025-12-21 0.057799 0.098565 0.166189 0.288017 0.505447 0.883624 1.605003
2025-12-28 0.052772 0.093387 0.163405 0.294732 0.539336 0.983898 1.872528
2026-01-04 0.047059 0.086176 0.156061 0.292138 0.555877 1.055321 2.098473
2026-01-11 0.042779 0.080940 0.151484 0.293866 0.580591 1.145528 2.376738
2026-01-18 0.039481 0.077239 0.149520 0.300893 0.617993 1.268912 2.751519
2026-01-25 0.034665 0.069932 0.139649 0.290711 0.618920 1.318754 2.979651
2026-02-01 0.030092 0.062488 0.128501 0.276224 0.608487 1.343062 3.156172
2026-02-08 0.026939 0.057556 0.121837 0.270342 0.616022 1.408226 3.441567
2026-02-15 0.024100 0.052909 0.115147 0.263386 0.620007 1.466056 3.721216
2026-02-22 0.022588 0.050973 0.114094 0.269176 0.654999 1.603257 4.230657
2026-03-01 0.020173 0.046664 0.107135 0.259933 0.651824 1.646436 4.501308
2026-03-08 0.018368 0.043537 0.102488 0.255631 0.660417 1.721011 4.874100
2026-03-15 0.016760 0.040669 0.098073 0.251244 0.668080 1.794529 5.259828
2026-03-22 0.015918 0.039562 0.097786 0.257458 0.705179 1.954152 5.934192
2026-03-29 0.014722 0.037408 0.094600 0.255483 0.719335 2.052229 6.442063